Russia Holds Steady as Global Sunflower Seed Supplier Amid Falling Harvests Elsewhere

The global sunflower seed market is under pressure, with significant production drops forecasted in major growing regions like the European Union and Ukraine. According to the latest estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2024/25 global sunflower seed harvest is expected to fall to 50.6 million tons, down from the August projection of 52.5 million tons. This would mark the smallest harvest in four years, with a year-on-year global supply reduction of 5.3 million tons.

EU and Ukraine Suffer Declines in Sunflower Production

The decline in global sunflower seed production is primarily driven by lower-than-expected harvests in the European Union and Ukraine. The USDA’s latest figures suggest that the EU will produce 9.5 million tons of sunflower seeds in 2024, down by 650,000 tons from earlier forecasts and 500,000 tons lower than in 2023. These reductions are largely due to shrinking acreage and declining yields across the continent.

Ukraine, another significant producer, is also experiencing setbacks, with production estimated at 12.5 million tons. Ongoing drought and high temperatures have severely impacted crop yields, leading the USDA to lower its forecast by 1 million tons compared to previous estimates. These weather-related challenges are dampening the country’s potential output, further tightening the global supply.

Russia Remains Resilient in Sunflower Seed Production

Despite these regional struggles, Russia’s sunflower seed production remains unchanged from the August forecast at 16 million tons. However, this represents a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to the 2023/24 period. Still, according to the German Farmers' Association (UFOP), Russia is expected to retain its position as the world’s leading sunflower seed supplier. This resilience ensures Russia's pivotal role in stabilizing the global sunflower oil market, even as other regions struggle to maintain production levels.

Sunflower Seed Exports Decline in 2024

Even though Russia remains a key producer, sunflower seed exports have taken a hit. OleoScope analysts report a significant reduction in oilseed exports during the first eight months of 2024. Compared to the same period last year, exports dropped by 33%, totaling 1.93 million tons. Specifically, sunflower seed exports for January-August 2024 reached 186,000 tons, a 13% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Over 85% of these seeds were shipped to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), underlining the regional nature of Russia’s export market.

Implications for the Global Market

With shrinking supplies from the EU and Ukraine, the global market is tightening, placing further pressure on prices and availability. While Russia continues to play a dominant role in sunflower seed production, the broader declines in other key regions are likely to influence global trade patterns and potentially drive up prices for sunflower oil and related products.

As the sunflower seed market continues to adjust to these challenges, the coming months will be critical in determining how global supply and demand balance out in response to these significant production drops.

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