Cold Weather Impacts U.S. Crops

Severe frosts in the U.S. between January 20-22, with temperatures dropping to -21°C, may have caused damage to up to 15% of winter wheat crops in areas without snow cover. Analysts from the Commodity Weather Group highlighted that affected crops in the Plains and Midwest are particularly at risk.

Market Reaction: Short-Lived Price Gains

Following the frost concerns, wheat prices initially rose by 3.6–4.9% last week. However, the upward momentum faded, and prices declined by 1–2.4% for the week overall. Despite this dip, news of worsening crop conditions in the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine provided some support to prices yesterday.

In Texas, 42% of the winter wheat crop is reported to be in good or excellent condition, a significant improvement compared to last year.

Wheat Futures Performance

On Monday, March wheat futures increased:

• Soft winter wheat (SRW) in Chicago: USD 200,40 per tonne (+1.8%), down 2.4% for the week.
• Hard winter wheat (HRW) in Kansas City: USD 206,10 per tonne (+1.4%), down 2.6% for the week.
• Durum spring wheat (HRS) in Minneapolis: USD 219,60 per tonne (+2%), down 1.1% for the week.
• Euronext wheat in Paris: USD 239 per tonne (+2.1%), down 1% for the week.

Dry Conditions Threaten Ukraine’s Winter Crop

In Ukraine, almost all winter wheat-producing regions are experiencing moisture shortages. While higher-than-average temperatures are preventing immediate damage, the lack of snow cover is drying out the soil. With plants already struggling due to limited nutrients, no significant rainfall is forecast for the next 7–10 days.

Despite these challenges, export demand prices for Ukrainian wheat at Black Sea ports remain stable:

• Food wheat: USD 218–223 per tonne
• Fodder wheat: USD 209–211 per tonne

Russia Faces Dry Weather, But Winter Crops Recover

Some winter wheat crops in Russia’s Central Black Earth and southern regions struggled to sprout due to autumn droughts. However, a warm winter has aided crop recovery. Currently, about two-thirds of the winter wheat crop suffers from a lack of moisture as precipitation remains below seasonal averages.

Export Prices See Modest Increases

According to Rusagrotrans analysts, export prices for wheat with 12.5% protein rose last week for February deliveries:

• Russian wheat: USD 238 per tonne FOB
• French wheat: USD 247 per tonne (+USD 6)
• Romanian wheat: USD 246 per tonne (+USD 9)
• American wheat: USD 238 per tonne (+USD 2)
• Argentine wheat: USD 229 per tonne (+USD 1)

Global Supply Keeps Prices in Check

On January 28, Jordan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade held a tender for 120,000 tonnes of wheat from any origin. The tender resulted in the purchase of 60,000 tonnes at USD 265,25 per tonne from Buildcom for delivery between June 1-30, 2025. The relatively low tender price suggests ample global wheat supply, reducing the likelihood of a significant price rally.

Conclusion: Market Remains Under Pressure

While frost damage in the U.S. briefly supported wheat prices, overall market conditions remain bearish due to strong global supply. Ukraine and Russia continue to experience moisture shortages, but unless weather conditions worsen further, significant price increases remain unlikely. Buyers should monitor upcoming crop conditions and global trade activity for potential shifts in the market.





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