Dried Apricots: Uncertainty Grows as Export Figures Decline

The dried apricot market remains tense as exports decline compared to last year. While domestic demand rises due to Ramadan, producers are concerned about stricter regulations and weakening export performance.

Market Situation & Price Development

• Total exports (01/08/2024 – 15/03/2025): 20,727,163 kg
• Total export value: $111,367,034
• Average export price: $5.37/kg

The preparations for the new dried apricot season are in full swing. New saplings are being planted, and trees are undergoing spraying treatments, but authorities continue to warn producers about pesticide use. Ensuring high-quality, residue-free treatments is crucial to avoid export restrictions later in the season.

Producers and exporters are struggling to recover after last year’s earthquake, and export figures remain disappointing. In February 2024, 6,671 tons were exported, but in February 2025, exports dropped to 5,940 tons—a worrying trend that raises concerns for the upcoming season.

Despite increased domestic demand due to Ramadan, the real profits come from exports. However, the market remains stagnant, with prices holding steady from last week. Many exporters are closely watching exchange rate movements, waiting for potential shifts by the end of the month.

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Key Market Drivers

🔹 Stricter Regulations: Authorities are emphasizing the importance of pesticide control to avoid residues that could trigger EU and US import restrictions.🔹 Export Decline: February export figures fell by 11% compared to last year, increasing concerns over long-term demand.🔹 Currency Fluctuations: The appreciation of the US dollar could influence pricing strategies and competitiveness in global markets.🔹 Ramadan Demand: Domestic consumption is rising, but export revenues are the main driver of producer profitability.

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Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

📉 Short-Term Outlook: The market remains stagnant, and price movements are limited. Exporters should monitor regulatory developments as compliance will be crucial for future shipments.

📊 Mid-Term Trends: If export figures continue to decline, price corrections may follow. Buyers should closely track inventory levels and secure contracts in advance to hedge against potential disruptions.

⚠️ Potential Risks:

• Stricter EU and US import controls on pesticide residues could jeopardize future exports.
• If dollar appreciation continues, competitiveness in non-USD markets could weaken.

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Conclusion & Outlook

The dried apricot market remains in a holding pattern, with stagnant exports and rising regulatory concerns shaping the outlook. While Ramadan has temporarily boosted domestic demand, the sector’s long-term sustainability relies on improved export performance.

📈 3-Day Price Forecast: Prices are expected to remain stable, with no significant movement anticipated. Exporters and producers are waiting for clearer market signals before making key decisions.

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