Sugar Prices Reverse Sharply โ Futures Drop Over 1.5% After Technical Rally
๐ Sugar Prices Reverse Sharply โ Futures Drop Over 1.5% After Technical Rally
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures fell significantly across all contracts on 3 April 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 1.67% to USD 543.80/t (EUR 505.73/t) after failing to break above resistance near USD 555/t. The sharp correction shows that the recent price rally was speculative and unsupported by fundamentals, as EU spot prices remain flat at EUR 0.50โ0.53/kg FCA.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Price Overview (03.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Drivers & Commentary
๐ป Failed Breakout Triggers Sell-Offโ After two strong sessions, sugar futures reversed sharply.โ Traders took profits as contracts neared technical resistance at USD 555โ560/t.๐ EU Spot Prices Still Unchangedโ No follow-through in the physical market.โ Spot prices remain at EUR 0.50โ0.53/kg FCA.โ Forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA remain largely ignored.
๐ Retail Pricing Pressure Continuesโ Polish discount pricing around EUR 0.37/kg still weighs on market sentiment.โ Producers increasingly frustrated by lack of volume at higher price levels.
๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (04โ06 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Expect further weakness or sideways action unless demand returns. Technical traders will watch for stabilization near USD 535/t.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Prices fell sharply โ confirming the rally lacked follow-through.โ EU market remains stagnant and disconnected from paper rally.๐ Retail & industrial buyers continue to wait for lower levels.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Continue to wait โ no urgency to chase prices.
- ๐ญ Sellers: Avoid forward pricing unless linked to volume commitments.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for support at 535 USD/t (498 EUR/t) โ downside risk remains.
