📉 Rapeseed Pauses After Rally – Market Braces for Tariff Fallout and USDA Sales Data
📍 After eight consecutive days of gains, Euronext rapeseed futures posted their first loss on Wednesday. While old crop prices eased slightly, new crop contracts firmed, supported by strong vegetable oil markets and dry conditions in Northern Europe.
Soybeans and meal softened, but soybean oil surged again amid hopes for a biodiesel policy expansion in the U.S.
📊 1. Market Overview – Futures & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures (03.04.2025)
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Influences
📉 Rapeseed: Pause After a Strong Rally
- The May contract slipped €1.75 after a sustained eight-day rally.
- New crop futures strengthened, supported by rising oil prices and dry conditions around the Baltic Sea.
- Traders note that upside momentum may be fading unless new bullish catalysts emerge.
🇺🇸 US Tariff Policy Fuels Market Nervousness
- President Trump announced new tariffs, sparing only Mexico and Canada for now.
- The EU may retaliate, potentially targeting soybean imports from the U.S.
- Soybeans declined amid concerns over weaker export prospects.
🛢️ Soybean Oil Leads the Complex
- Soybean oil rallied again, supported by biofuel demand and supply tightness.
- Strong oil markets helped support rapeseed and canola sentiment.
🌴 Palm Oil Rebounds
- Following a holiday break, Malaysian palm oil closed higher for the fourth session.
- The market continues to follow soy oil and biodiesel trends.
🔮 3-Day Price Outlook
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Stabilizing after technical rally
- Resistance: €535/t
- Support: €510/t
- Expected Range: €515 – €530/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Fragile amid export risk and tariff uncertainty
- Resistance: 1,035 ct/bu
- Support: 1,015 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,015 – 1,030 ct/bu
📉 4. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans (Long-Term Outlook)
📦 5. USDA Weekly Export Sales – Estimates (Week Ending 03.04.2025)
- Soybeans (2024/25): 250,000 – 800,000 t
- Soybeans (2025/26): up to 50,000 t
- Soybean Meal: 100,000 – 300,000 t
- Soybean Oil: 5,000 – 40,000 t
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
📉
Key Insights: - Rapeseed lost momentum but remained supported by strong fundamentals.
- Soybeans weakened as traders brace for retaliatory tariffs from global trading partners.
- Canola held up well on hopes of stable U.S. demand, especially for biofuels.
🔮
Eyes are now on USDA export figures and how global markets react to fresh tariff policies. Any escalation in the trade conflict could trigger short-term volatility across all oilseed contracts.
