Export Growth Slows After a Strong Start

Between July 2024 and March 2025, Ukraine exported nearly 2,100,000 tonnes of barley—7% more than the same period last year. Still, this figure sits below the five-year average. Most exports were concentrated in the early part of the season, from July to October. By January, monthly exports hit one of their lowest levels in recent memory.

China led demand in early 2024–25, but imports dropped sharply after September. The decline followed government orders for Chinese traders to curb feed grain purchases, including barley, to support domestic farmers. This policy shift significantly reduced Ukraine’s export flow to East Asia.

Ukraine's Barley Prices Remain High Despite Global Competition

Ukrainian barley has struggled to stay competitive in global markets, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where Australian barley is being offered at lower rates. While Ukraine's barley prices stayed steady at USD 0,221–0,223 per kg (CPT Odesa) in March 2025, many international buyers are turning to cheaper suppliers.

Corn prices have climbed recently, which has helped support domestic barley rates. However, these higher price levels are limiting export opportunities, especially in distant markets.

Farmers Shift Focus as Barley Loses Appeal

Looking ahead to the 2025–26 season, many Ukrainian farmers are prioritizing crops that offer guaranteed returns. Compared to corn and oilseeds, barley is now seen as less profitable. This trend may lead to reduced sowing unless market conditions improve.

Although Ukraine’s barley prices remain suitable for nearby Black Sea buyers, long-distance importers continue to seek more affordable options. Without adjustments in pricing or stronger international demand, Ukraine’s barley exports are likely to stay limited in the upcoming season.