Corn Ends Week Mixed – Nearby Contracts Supported, New Crop Pressured by Acreage Outlook
➡ Corn Ends Week Mixed – Nearby Contracts Supported, New Crop Pressured by Acreage Outlook
While early-dated CBOT corn contracts closed slightly higher, new crop positions remained under pressure due to expanding acreage expectations. Trade tensions and demand stability continue to shape sentiment.
U.S. corn finished the week with modest gains in short-term contracts, supported by export stability and global supply concerns. Deferred contracts eased expectations of increased U.S. production. Euronext corn also ticked up slightly, though weekly losses remained.
While early-dated CBOT corn contracts closed slightly higher, new crop positions remained under pressure due to expanding acreage expectations. Trade tensions and demand stability continue to shape sentiment.
U.S. corn finished the week with modest gains in short-term contracts, supported by export stability and global supply concerns. Deferred contracts eased expectations of increased U.S. production. Euronext corn also ticked up slightly, though weekly losses remained.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ Short-term contracts remain supported by firm demand and resilient trade flows.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Modest recovery in the near-term contract after a weak weekly performance.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌍 Trade Stability for Corn vs. Soy:U.S. corn trade with China remains limited, minimizing exposure to tariff risks.
- Mexico remains duty-free → stable demand continues
- China covers needs via South America and Ukraine
- 📉 New Crop Pressure:The expected expansion of U.S. corn acreage is weighing on deferred positions.
- Higher prices could further shift planting away from soybeans
- The risk of oversupply is emerging in the 2025 balance sheet
- 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning (April 1):
- Managed money reduced net-long by 17,850 contracts
- New total: 56,757 contracts
- Sentiment remains cautious
- 🚢 USDA Export Sales:
- Commitments: 54.235 million tons
- +24% YoY, covering 87% of the USDA target
- Slightly below 5-year average of 88%
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🔄 Old crop well supported by stable exports and global tightness
- ⚠️ New crop exposed to oversupply risks due to acreage shift
- 📉 Speculators reducing long exposure as planting season begins
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 8–10)
