Sugar Prices Fall Again โ EU Market Remains Disconnected
๐ Sugar Prices Fall Again โ EU Market Remains Disconnected
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued to decline on 7 April 2025. The May 2025 contract closed at USD 533.90/t (-0.82%), with losses across all forward contracts. The market struggles with weak demand, technical exhaustion, and a continued lack of momentum in the physical market. EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.52โ0.55/kg FCA, driven more by protectionist structures than by market forces.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (07.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Drivers & Commentary
๐ป Ongoing Weakness in Futures Marketโ Futures remain under pressure after the early April spike faded.โ Momentum continues to weaken as speculative buyers exit.๐ช๐บ EU Market Remains Stable โ But Expensiveโ No change in spot pricing: EUR 0.52โ0.55/kg FCA.โ Despite falling global futures, EU prices are propped up by tariff protection.โ Buyers remain hesitant, forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA still face resistance.
๐๏ธ Retail Market Shows Growing Disconnectโ Supermarket shelf prices in Eastern Europe as low as EUR 0.37/kg, while industrial buyers are asked for over EUR 0.60/kg โ a gap that raises more questions than confidence.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.04.2025)
๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (08โ10 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Continued weakness is expected unless technical support near USD 530/t holds.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Sugar prices drift lower โ a trend still negative.โ EU prices out of sync โ protected by tariffs, not demand.๐ Producers struggle to justify forward pricing while retail undercuts continue.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Continue to push back against unjustified increases โ global benchmarks are falling.
- ๐ญ Sellers: Be cautious โ price strength unsupported by market fundamentals.
- ๐ Traders: Watch 530 USD/t (494 EUR/t) as a key technical level.
