Wheat Futures Rise – Weather Risks and French Demand Support Prices
📜 Wheat Futures Rise – Weather Risks and French Demand Support Prices 📜
Wheat prices advanced at the start of the week, with both Euronext and CBOT markets recovering further. Weather concerns in the U.S., a lower euro, and fresh demand interest from North Africa supported sentiment, while long-term fundamentals remain tight.📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
📌 Prices continued to recover from last week’s multi-month lows, supported by weather and technical buying.
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📉 U.S. Weather Adds to Market Concerns
📊 The market responded to two key weather developments:- 37% of winter wheat acreage is located in areas currently facing drought, up from 17% last year (USDA)
- Ongoing dryness in the southern Plains raises concern for winter wheat development
- Flooding in the Ohio River Valley and Mississippi Delta may have affected up to one-third of SRW fields (Commodity Weather Group)
🔹 📈 Crop Progress Report Offers Limited Relief
📊 USDA’s first 2025 Crop Progress Report (April 1) showed:- Winter wheat rated 48% good/excellent, below 56% last year, but slightly better than analyst expectations (47%)
- Spring wheat planting at 3%, in line with last year and the 5-year average
🔹 📈 Euro Weakness and Physical Market Demand Lifted Euronext
📊 A weaker euro and signs of export demand helped lift Euronext:- North African buyers (e.g., Algeria, Morocco) seen returning to French wheat
- Expectations are growing that North Africa and the Middle East may re-enter the market after Ramadan
🔹 📉 USDA Export Report Shows Weaker Weekly Volume
📊 U.S. export inspections for the week ending April 3:- 334,888 t shipped, down 33% vs. last week and 35% vs. last year
- FY total: 17.69 million t, still +15.1% YoY
- Top destinations: Mexico (76,161 t), Japan (60,797 t), Philippines (56,400 t)
🔹 📉 EU Export Momentum Still Weak
📊 EU wheat exports (as of March 30):- 16.68 million t, down 36% vs. last year
- German exports: 1.89 million t (+50,000 t WoW)
🔹 📉 Russia’s 2025/26 Wheat Crop Outlook Lowered
📊 Argus Media revised its production estimate to 80.3 million t (from 81.5):- Spring wheat acreage is falling, offsetting improved winter wheat conditions
- Russian farmers are switching to oilseeds and pulses
🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 9–11, 2025)
📌 Weather developments will drive short-term direction – especially in drought-affected U.S. regions.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
🇺🇸 USA – Great Plains & Mississippi Valley
📍 Current: Mixed conditions📆 Outlook:- 🌧️ Dry conditions persist in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
- 🌊 Flooding in Ohio Valley continues to threaten SRW areas
- 🌡️ Temperatures trending warmer, aiding crop progress
🇪🇺 EU – France, Germany, Baltics
📍 Current: March was very dry across much of Northern Europe📆 Outlook:- 🌧️ No significant rain is expected until April 9
- 🌡️ Warmer weather may accelerate drought stress in winter wheat
📉 5. Market Data Highlights
📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
📍 Key Takeaways:✅ Prices rebounded as drought concerns and weak acreage fueled short-covering✅ EU wheat found support from the physical market and weaker euro✅ USDA export data was weak, but not a major market mover✅ Russian crop outlook lowered, but not yet priced in📌 Strategic Recommendations:🔹 Producers: Monitor crop health – potential for upside in weather-driven markets🔹 Buyers: Use current prices to secure nearby coverage – monitor North African tenders🔹 Traders: Volatility will remain high as weather and fund positioning dominate
📍 The wheat market remains tightly balanced – weather, export interest, and fund flows will shape April.
