📈 Rapeseed Rebounds Slightly – Soy Market Remains Under Trade Pressure

📍 While Euronext rapeseed futures stabilized, the soybean market continues to face mounting pressure due to escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. Lower soybean stock expectations in Brazil and hopes for stronger biodiesel demand are offering some support.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Prices & Developments

🔹 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF) – 9 April 2025

🔹 ICE Canola (CAD/t) – 9 April 2025

🔹 CBOT Soybeans (US-ct/bu) – 10 April 2025

🔹 CBOT Soybean Oil (US-ct/lb) – 10 April 2025

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers

🔸 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Escalate

• After China imposed a 34% tariff on U.S. soy imports, the U.S. responded by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%.
• A further 50% U.S. tariff has been threatened.
• Analysts believe this makes future U.S. soybean exports to China unlikely.
• China is expected to meet its soybean demand through South America, primarily Brazil.

🔸 USDA Export Inspections

• Weekly U.S. soybean exports totaled 804,270 t (down just 1% WoW, but +63% YoY).
• China remained the top destination with 341,278 t, all shipped before new tariffs took effect.

🔸 Biodiesel Demand Hopes

• Industry groups in the U.S. are lobbying the EPA to increase the biodiesel mandate to 5.25 billion gallons by 2026.
• This would lift domestic demand for soybean oil, partially offsetting lost export potential.

🔸 Brazilian Harvest

• As of 3 April, 87% of soybean fields have been harvested—11.5% ahead of the same time last year.
• AgRural warns that drought in Rio Grande do Sul is weighing on yields.

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🔍 3. Strategic Summary & Outlook

📌 Rapeseed: Stabilizing around €507–510/t, but vulnerable to developments in energy prices and trade dynamics.

📌 Soybeans: Slight rebound from multi-month lows, supported by Brazilian premiums and biodiesel talks, but the U.S.–China trade war remains the overriding concern.

📉 Market Risks:

• Trade retaliation, especially in agri-commodities.
• Continued decline in crude oil prices, now at the lowest since April 2021.
• Slowing global macroeconomics may weigh on commodity demand.

🔮 Next Watchpoints:

• Further updates from EPA on biofuel policy.
• Chinese response to heightened U.S. tariffs.
• Malaysian palm oil stock developments.