📈 Surge in EU Cashew Imports Amid US Tariffs: Market Dynamics and Forecast
Riding on a significant uptick in cashew nut imports to the European Union, the cashew market has seen notable changes in the first quarter of 2025. With a record-breaking 42,850 tonnes valued at €273 million imported into the EU, the market dynamics have shifted, particularly due to the US imposing a hefty 46% tariff on Vietnamese cashews and a 26% tariff on Indian cashews. This geopolitical shift has spurred suppliers to pivot towards the EU, Japan, and the Middle East, seeking new markets to mitigate the impact of the US tariffs.
India, maintaining a modest 8% rise in exports despite rising domestic prices and demand constraints, and Vietnam, accounting for a staggering 72% of total EU imports, are at the forefront of this shift. The zero percent import tax rate under the FTA with Vietnam has further facilitated this influx, making Vietnamese cashews more competitive in the EU market.
However, the market is rife with speculation about the long-term effects of these tariffs. With the US market becoming less accessible due to these tariffs, both Indian and Vietnamese suppliers are forced to reassess their strategies and explore new markets. This report delves into the current market trends, price movements, and fundamental drivers shaping the global cashew market, providing a detailed forecast and strategic recommendations for stakeholders.
India, maintaining a modest 8% rise in exports despite rising domestic prices and demand constraints, and Vietnam, accounting for a staggering 72% of total EU imports, are at the forefront of this shift. The zero percent import tax rate under the FTA with Vietnam has further facilitated this influx, making Vietnamese cashews more competitive in the EU market.
However, the market is rife with speculation about the long-term effects of these tariffs. With the US market becoming less accessible due to these tariffs, both Indian and Vietnamese suppliers are forced to reassess their strategies and explore new markets. This report delves into the current market trends, price movements, and fundamental drivers shaping the global cashew market, providing a detailed forecast and strategic recommendations for stakeholders.
📊 Market Overview: Current Prices and Trends
📈 Key Market Drivers
- Significant tariffs by the US on Vietnamese and Indian cashews have redirected trade flows primarily towards the European Union.
- The zero percent import tax under the FTA with Vietnam has made Vietnamese cashews highly competitive in the EU.
- Speculations about the long-term impact of US tariffs are causing market uncertainties.
🌦️ Weather Forecast – Key Growing Regions
Current weather conditions in major cashew producing areas in India and Vietnam are favorable, with no significant adverse weather events predicted in the short term. This stability is expected to support ongoing harvesting activities.🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
Given the stable supply conditions and the current geopolitical landscape, prices are expected to remain relatively stable with slight fluctuations due to market speculations and logistical dynamics.📉 Global Production and Inventory
Global production of cashews is on the rise, with India and Vietnam leading the charge. However, inventory levels are also growing, suggesting a potential oversupply if demand does not increase proportionately.📌 Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
- Producers should explore new markets and diversify their trade routes to mitigate risks associated with the US tariffs.
- Buyers in the EU should capitalize on the competitive pricing of Vietnamese cashews due to the FTA.
- Traders should keep a close watch on geopolitical developments and market speculations that could affect price volatility.
