The global coffee market is currently facing significant shifts due to new tariff structures and competitive pressures. Recent changes in U.S. import tariffs have placed Indian instant coffee exporters at a disadvantage, with a new 26% duty compared to just 10% for Brazil and Ecuador. This report delves into the current market conditions, price trends, and fundamental drivers affecting the coffee trade, with a focus on how Indian exporters are pivoting towards alternative markets in light of these challenges.

India, traditionally a significant player in the U.S. coffee market, exported approximately 9,000 tonnes to the U.S. during the 2024–25 period, predominantly in the form of instant coffee. However, the new tariff regime is expected to reshape trade dynamics, potentially benefiting countries like Brazil and disadvantaging Indian exporters. This analysis will explore the strategic responses by Indian exporters, the broader market implications, and provide a forecast for the coffee market's direction in the coming days.

---

📊 Market Overview

📈 Key Market Drivers

• Significant tariff disparity impacting competitive positioning in the U.S. market.
• Brazil and Ecuador potentially gaining market share due to lower tariffs.
• Indian exporters exploring alternative markets to mitigate impact.

🌦️ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

The weather in major coffee-producing areas like Brazil and India is expected to remain stable, with no significant disruptions forecasted in the coming days. This stability is likely to support ongoing harvesting activities without major interruptions.

🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days

Given the current market conditions and stable weather forecasts, coffee prices are expected to show moderate fluctuations. However, the overarching impact of the new tariff structure may induce volatility, particularly for Indian exporters.

Regions like Brazil may see a slight uptick in prices due to favorable tariff rates and stable production forecasts.

---