🌿 Rapeseed Stabilizes, While Soybean Market Remains Volatile
Teaser: The rapeseed market finds support from firmer oilseed prices, while the soybean complex remains on edge amid global trade tensions and weather concerns in South America.
📈 Market Overview
📊 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF)
📊 ICE Canola (Winnipeg)
📊 CBOT Soybeans
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- Tighter Vegetable Oil SupplyThe latest USDA WASDE report revised global vegetable oil production for 2024/25 down by 0.9 million tons to 228.1 million tons due to lower palm oil output in Southeast Asia. This provided strong support to soy oil and, by extension, rapeseed markets.
- South America Crop DevelopmentsIn Argentina, harvest delays are mounting due to ongoing rainfall. The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its soybean output forecast to 45.5 million tons, well below USDA’s 49 million. Meanwhile, Brazil’s CONAB slightly raised its estimate to 167.87 million tons—still below USDA’s 169 million.
- US Stocks and ExportsThe USDA reported lower-than-expected U.S. soybean ending stocks (375 million bu vs. expected 379 million bu). Export sales were mixed: soybean bookings missed expectations, while soymeal performed strongly and soy oil was in line.
- Trade War DynamicsWhile the recent U.S. tariff suspension brought temporary relief, underlying uncertainty remains. Canada could benefit long-term, especially if China lifts its 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meals.
🔮 3-Day Price Outlook
- Euronext Rapeseed (May 2025):Forecast Range: 466 – 476 EUR/t↗️ Mild bullish tone as long as vegetable oil sentiment remains supportive.
- CBOT Soybeans (July 2025):Forecast Range: 1,030 – 1,050 ct/bu↗️ Prices are supported by oilseed strength, but trade risks may limit the upside.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trends
- Argentina:Widespread rainfall continues to hamper harvest progress, especially in the northeast. Conditions are expected to normalize in 7–10 days.
- Brazil:Central and northern regions remain stable, aiding rapid harvest advancement. Southern regions remain drier, with no significant disruptions expected.
