As global wheat markets adjust to new data, China's strategic shift towards self-sufficiency is making waves. With the USDA projecting higher yields for the 2025–26 season, China's dependency on grain imports is expected to wane. This report delves into the latest wheat price trends, fundamental drivers, and provides a detailed forecast influenced by upcoming weather conditions and market sentiment.

📈 Market Overview

📉 Key Market Drivers

• China's increased wheat and corn yields reduce import needs.
• Technological advancements in agriculture enhance local production.
• Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions influence global supply chains.

⛅ Weather Forecast - Impact on Harvest

Upcoming mild weather across major wheat-growing regions in the US and Ukraine is expected to support healthy crop development, potentially leading to increased yields barring any unforeseen extreme weather events.

🔮 Price Forecast

Short-term wheat prices are expected to stabilize with a slight upward potential, influenced by China's reduced market participation and steady global demand. Key regions to watch include the US and Ukraine, where weather conditions remain favorable.