📉 Sugar Market Diverges Again – May Contract Rises as Rest of Curve Weakens

On 14 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 showed a split market, with the May 2025 contract gaining 0.83% to USD 527.40/t (EUR 490.48/t), while all other contracts closed in the red. The rebound in the front month appears to be driven by short-term technical positioning, while overall sentiment remains weak. Meanwhile, EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, and market participants expect an increase to EUR 0.60/kg in the coming days.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (14.04.2025)

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Front Month Gains While Rest of Curve Sinks– The May 2025 contract saw a modest gain, likely due to position squaring before expiry.– The rest of the curve sold off, confirming that underlying sentiment remains bearish.

🇪🇺 EU Spot Prices Steady But Threaten to Rise Again– Prices are unchanged at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, but traders report that EUR 0.60/kg will come this week.– Buyers resist, citing low global prices and a weak demand outlook.

🛍️ Retail Prices Still Contradict High Spot Offers– Most discount retailers hold prices at or below EUR 0.69/kg.– Central and Eastern Europe continues to undercut with EUR 0.42–0.50/kg pricing.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 14.04.2025)

Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15–17 April 2025)

📌 Outlook:Further weakness in the back months is expected; the May contract could remain volatile due to expiry dynamics.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ May futures rebounded, but the curve remains under pressure.❌ EU pricing is increasingly detached from fundamentals.📉 Spot market remains tight only due to structural policy – not demand.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Be wary of new price increases – global trend argues for stability or declines.
• 📦 Sellers: Secure forward contracts only if backed by physical demand.
• 📊 Traders: Monitor expiry activity – back months offer clearer direction.

📍 Summary: EU prices may rise again – but the rest of the world isn’t following.

Current sugar price: 612 €/t CIF Hamburg10-day trend: +2.3 %As of: 14 April 2025