Corn Futures Rebound After Two Days of Losses – Weather and Dollar Drive Market
➡ Corn Futures Rebound After Two Days of Losses – Weather and Dollar Drive Market
After a short-lived pullback, U.S. corn futures rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and wet weather in key growing areas. Euronext contracts also posted modest gains.
Following two sessions of selling pressure, corn prices in Chicago turned higher midweek. Rain in the Midwest raised concerns about planting progress, while the dollar’s softness encouraged fresh buying. Meanwhile, Euronext markets showed limited upward movement, with near-term contracts stabilising.
After a short-lived pullback, U.S. corn futures rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and wet weather in key growing areas. Euronext contracts also posted modest gains.
Following two sessions of selling pressure, corn prices in Chicago turned higher midweek. Rain in the Midwest raised concerns about planting progress, while the dollar’s softness encouraged fresh buying. Meanwhile, Euronext markets showed limited upward movement, with near-term contracts stabilising.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ July delivery reached 170 EUR/t equivalent – a two-week high.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Slight increase in early contracts, sentiment remains cautious.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌧 U.S. Weather Risk:
- Rain in major planting regions could delay corn seeding
- Extended delays may lead to acreage switching to soybeans
- 💵 Weak U.S. Dollar:
- Currency weakness continued to support the U.S. grain export appeal
- 🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest Update:
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange: 28% harvested
- Yields exceeding expectations – output likely to surpass current forecast of 49 Mt
- 🇫🇷 FranceAgriMer Increases Corn Ending Stocks (2024/25):
- Revised upward to 3.39 Mt from 3.08 Mt
- Supply situation in France remains comfortable
- 🛢 EIA Ethanol Report (April 10):
- Production: ↓ 9,000 bpd → 1.012 million bpd
- Stocks: ↓ 220,000 bbl → 26.814 million bbl
- Exports: ↓ 37,000 bpd → 137,000 bpd
- Refinery input: ↑ 30,000 bpd → 902,000 bpd
- 📦 USDA Export Sales (due Thursday):
- Expected:
- 2024/25: 0.6–1.8 Mt
- 2025/26: 0–300,000 t
- Market awaits confirmation of demand resilience
- Expected:
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Corn Fundamentals Snapshot
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 📈 Upside limited by South American harvest optimism
- 🌧 U.S. weather remains key short-term driver
- 📊 Watch the USDA sales report for confirmation of sustained demand
- Maintain long bias in July contracts, especially on weather headlines
- Consider profit-taking or tight stop-losses ahead of the USDA export data
- Monitor Argentina harvest closely – higher yields could cap rallies
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 18–20)
