Turkish Hazelnut Market – Frost Damage Drives Prices to New Highs, TMO Out of Stock
📈 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Frost Damage Drives Prices to New Highs, TMO Out of Stock 📈
📍 Hazelnut prices in Turkey have surged dramatically amid uncertainty over frost damage, leading to panic buying and a near sellout of TMO stocks. While sellers are holding back, buyers are scrambling to secure supply. The price spiral, combined with a weakening Turkish Lira, has driven raw material prices up by over 35% in two weeks.📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
Week 16 Market Prices (DDP Central Europe):📈 TRY Performance (vs. EUR): Turkish Lira weakened 1.5% week-over-week.
📍 Market Development vs. Previous Periods:
- Quarterly Price Increase: +15.02%
- Half-Year Increase: +22.17%
- Annual Increase: +16.75%
- 3-Year Gain: +41.88%
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔥 Frost Triggers Price Explosion
- Night frosts along Turkey’s Black Sea coast severely impacted orchards.
- Early estimates suggest damage to at least 20% of the 2025 crop, especially in Samsun and Western Turkey.
- Many trees may drop nuts in the coming months due to stress, a delayed damage effect often underestimated.
🧊 TMO Stocks Depleted
- The TMO suspended sales mid-week, with only 10,000–20,000 MT remaining.
- Buyers transferred funds without knowing what they'd receive, just to reserve quantities.
📦 Sellers Withdraw
- Most farmers have pulled back, holding onto stocks in anticipation of higher prices.
- Exporters are partially undercovered, having sold commission-based goods early.
📉 Currency Impact Diminished
- While the Lira fell, its impact was neutralised by soaring raw material prices.
📉 Export Prices from Week 16 (as listed separately):
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – buyers remain active, sellers hold out.📌 Downside Risk: Limited – unless frost damage proves minor in May.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend
🌦️ Turkey – Black Sea Region (Trabzon, Ordu, Samsun, Düzce):- 🌡️ Day temperatures: 13–17°C, nights remain cool
- 🌧️ Rain expected across northern regions April 25–30
- 🌫️ Risk of delayed bloom development due to stress conditions
📉 Long-Term Outlook – Stocks & Production
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Highlights:- Prices soared due to frost and speculation.
- Buyers act fast, sellers pull back.
- TMO nearly sold out, pushing prices further up.
- Currency devaluation offset by commodity price inflation.
- Secure available volumes promptly, especially 11–13 mm.
- Expect continued volatility until frost damage is confirmed in May.
- Hold back if possible; buyers are active and ready to pay higher levels.
- Watch for quality risks in older TMO stocks.
