Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Soar Further as INC Estimate Sparks Controversy
📈 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Soar Further as INC Estimate Sparks Controversy 📈
📍 As raw material prices reach 215 TRY/kg, the Turkish hazelnut market remains volatile ahead of the official INC crop estimate (expected May 10). While field inspections suggest up to 30% frost-related damage, rumours indicate the INC number may forecast a slightly below-average harvest of around 610,000 MT, contradicting local evidence. Meanwhile, exporters and buyers stay cautious, and farmers hold firm in their demand for 250 TRY/kg.📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
📈 TRY/EUR stable at ~43.5📉 Export prices up, mainly due to raw material surge, not currency changes.
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔥 Tension Ahead of INC Estimate
- The field inspections report severe regional frost damage, especially in Samsun and Ordu.
- However, the rumoured INC estimate (610,000 MT + 150,000 MT carry-over) suggests a less severe impact, sparking confusion.
🚜 Farmers Hold Out for Higher Prices
- Farmgate price now at 215 TRY/kg, up from 205 TRY/kg last week.
- Farmers are targeting 250 TRY/kg, holding back stocks.
🏭 Trade Slows as Market Waits
- Very limited local trade; exporters struggle to find raw material.
- Buyers adopt the wait-and-see strategy, hesitant to accept sharply higher prices.
- Export offers show extreme price divergence, reflecting uncertainty.
🌍 Global Picture
- Georgia and Azerbaijan are expecting normal to slightly better harvests, providing minor relief.
- TMO remains nearly sold out – any release of residual stocks could briefly ease supply.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – all eyes on INC announcement.📌 Downside Risk: Possible correction if the INC figure leads the market to believe the frost impact was overstated.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:🌡️ Temperatures range between 12–19°C.🌧️ Scattered rainfall likely May 6–9.🌱 Good flowering weather, but post-frost stress could still cause nut drop in May/June.📉 Long-Term Outlook – Global Balance
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Observations:- Market frozen until INC clarity expected May 10.
- Strong speculative sentiment, but some doubt official estimates.
- Roasted and raw whole kernels leading price rally, while small processed grades lag.
- Wait for the INC outcome before committing.
- Consider covering long-term needs early if prices jump post-INC.
- Hold back if you can – supply tightness + speculation = seller's market.
- Prepare to capitalise on further rallies, but also watch for potential corrections.
📢 Contact us for post-INC analysis, strategic offers, and positioning advice.
