Rapeseed Falls Again – Market Pressured by Vegetable Oil Crash

Rapeseed futures declined for the second day in a row, dragged down by crashing vegetable oil markets and broad-based profit-taking across the oilseed complex.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

On Thursday, the August 2025 contract on Euronext dropped by €5.25 to €478.75/t, as traders locked in gains from earlier in the week. Despite relatively stable fundamentals, rapeseed followed the sharp sell-off in soy oil, palm oil, and crude oil.

*Estimated from relative movement.

At ICE, canola contracts dropped significantly:

• Jul 25 closed at 694.40 CAD/t (–27.10)
• Nov 25 at 668.10 CAD/t (–24.00)

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Vegetable Oil CollapseSoy oil plunged after reports that the EPA may propose a lower-than-expected biodiesel blending mandate of 4.65 billion gallons, compared to industry hopes of 5.25 billion.
• Farmer Selling ContinuesHigh price levels encouraged new crop hedging by producers, especially in Germany and France.
• Canola Plunge Adds PressureICE contracts dropped nearly 4%, weighing on global oilseed sentiment.
• Limited Fundamental ChangeUSDA and EU outlooks remain stable; Thursday’s losses were driven more by technical and speculative flows.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The market has corrected from short-term overbought levels but still holds above critical support.

Strategy:– Cautious long accumulation possible near €475– Avoid fresh longs until soy oil/palm oil stabilises– Producers can hold off on additional sales for now

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Rapeseed Regions

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