Soybeans Reach 9-Month High Before Pullback – Biofuel Uncertainty Caps Rally

Soybeans climbed to a 9-month high early in the week as the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary trade truce. However, gains faded as doubts over U.S. biofuel policy triggered a sharp correction.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

The July 2025 contract on the CBOT peaked on Tuesday following the 90-day trade ceasefire announcement. By Friday, it had slipped by 1.25 ct to 1,050.00 ct/bu (~346 EUR/t), resulting in a modest weekly loss of 0.2%.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Trade Ceasefire Boosts Early SentimentA 90-day pause in the U.S.–China trade dispute raised hopes for continued U.S. soybean shipments to China. However, uncertainty remains without a final deal.
• Biofuel Policy Still in FocusA U.S. Congressional proposal to extend clean fuel tax credits supported prices early in the week. But soy oil collapsed later amid speculation that the EPA may propose a lower-than-expected biodiesel mandate.
• Soy Oil Retreats SharplyAfter hitting a 1.5-year high, soy oil dropped over 6% by week's end, dragging the soybean complex lower.
• CFTC Positioning Turns More BullishFunds added 16,537 net long contracts, bringing total long positions to 38,407, the highest since March.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Soybeans remain structurally supported above 1,045 ct. However, traders await official EPA confirmation on biofuel quotas.

Strategy:– Maintain cautious long positions above 1,045– Monitor soy oil for recovery signs– Expect range-bound trade until a clear biofuel direction emerges

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Major Growing Areas

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