Turkish Hazelnut Market – Revised Yield Expectations Tighten Supply Outlook
Turkish Hazelnut Market – Revised Yield Expectations Tighten Supply Outlook
📍 With renewed field counts revealing more severe regional crop losses, Turkish hazelnut sellers are adjusting upward. While raw material prices remained stable this week, this is likely temporary, as commission-based stocks must be cleared by end-May, after which a price surge is expected. Meanwhile, the Turkish Lira weakened by over 2%, but exporters absorbed FX effects to hold local prices stable, shifting upward pressure to European buyers.📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
📈 Export prices edged higher despite TRY weakness, indicating price resistance in TRY terms.📉 Local price pressure remains muted until commission clearance is complete.
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔍 Crop Loss More Severe Than First Stated
- Samsun & Ordu expected to face 50 %+ yield loss.
- Trabzon, Giresun: Closer to normal, but still risk-affected.
- Western regions: ~20% drop, not unusual after strong 2024 yield.
💰 Market Sentiment Shifts
- Sellers are now unanimously raising prices for 2025 crop offers.
- €2/kg price spread across offers reflects wide market uncertainty.
- Offers below current levels have disappeared entirely.
📦 Commission Ware Impact
- By the end of May, unprocessed TMO or consignment stock will be liquidated.
- After that, new season price formation will begin, likely at higher levels.
💱 Currency Update
- TRY fell >2% vs. EUR this week.
- Exporters held EUR prices steady, implying local cost increases.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – after commission clearance, sellers may act collectively.📌 Downside Risk: Minimal – market now anticipates a poor harvest.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:🌡️ Daytime temps 18–24°C🌧️ Isolated thunderstorms in eastern regions (Samsun/Ordu).🌱 Field conditions favourable, nut set development ongoing.🐛 Stinkbug activity increasing, pest pressure likely a Q3 concern.📉 Global Crop & Production Outlook
📉 Global buyers expect no growth in consumption, particularly from Asia & confectionery sector.
🧠 Key Takeaways & Strategy
🔍 Summary:- Revised orchard assessments show worse damage than the INC data suggested.
- All sellers are raising expectations to ~250 TRY/kg raw material price.
- Exporters and buyers await the market reset in June.
- FX remains stable, but pricing is no longer reacting to Lira shifts – TRY-based costs dominate.
- Cover short-term needs before June volatility.
- Avoid exposure to low-grade small kernels – overhang risk from TMO stock persists.
- Use the commission clearance period to consolidate.
- Prepare for a strong premium structure between whole kernels and broken grades.
