Turkish Hazelnut Market – Sellers Shift Tactics as Prices Temporarily Soften

📍 Amid muted demand and surplus offers, Turkish hazelnut prices weakened this week across most product grades. Exporters who previously held firm have started to sell off consignment stock before month-end, aiming to influence prices downward. Buyers remain cautious, and most view 2025 crop offers as overpriced, holding back until further clarity emerges in mid-June.

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📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments

📉 Overall weekly price drop: -4.15%, largest single-week decline since February.💱 TRY/EUR remains stable – no FX-driven price movement.

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🌍 Market Drivers & Trends

📦 Sellers Shift from Holding to Liquidation

• Exporters switch roles from buyers to sellers to pressure prices downward.
• May 31 marks the deadline for commission stock liquidation, pushing some to accept discounts.

💰 Farmer Speculation Declines

• Pre-holiday liquidity needs (due to Kurban Bayramı) prompt some farmers to sell at lower prices.
• TMO has not yet intervened, despite expectations for a bullish auction.

🔍 Quality & Traceability Gaps Widen

• Heterogeneity in offers: Some exporters transparently label 2022 TMO stock; others blend or mislabel.
• Pricing of roasted and natural whole kernels is increasingly distorted due to quality gaps.

🛑 Buyer Behaviour

• Buyers' focus shifts to 2025 crop, but price expectations remain misaligned.
• Many European buyers say, “If it's expensive now, it'll still be expensive later.”

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

📌 Upside Risk: Low until the post-Eid market reopens mid-June.📌 Downside Risk: Minimal after consignment stock clears.

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⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current Situation:🌡️ Temperatures are stable at 19–24°C.🌧️ Showers expected June 4–7.🐛 Continued monitoring for stinkbug impact, now entering critical nut-set phase.

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📉 Long-Term Production & Export Insights

• Exporters expect continued divergence between grades (premium vs. bulk).
• 2022 TMO stock still distorting the market for small kernel categories and paste.
• Global consumption forecast flat, especially in the confectionery industry.

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🧠 Key Takeaways & Strategy

🔍 Key Themes:

• Price correction this week is not market-driven, but deadline-driven (end-May stock pressures).
• High-quality offers remain strong, with minor corrections, while low-grade quotes dropped most.
• June is expected to reset market expectations, especially as orchard health updates and revised forecasts emerge.

📌 Buyers:

• Wait for post-Eid offers, better quality assessments expected.
• Avoid low-quality stock dumping, especially in broken and paste categories.

📌 Sellers:

• Stabilise quality offers and prepare for mid-June reentry.
• Use the next 2 weeks to recalibrate export strategies and buyer dialogues.