The global dried figs market enters a pivotal transition as fig bud season begins in Turkey, the world’s largest exporter. With preparations underway for the 2025 crop, concerns are mounting among Turkish growers over persistent hot, dry conditions and declining dam levels nationwide. These weather challenges threaten irrigation and raise uncertainty over achieving the quality and yield needed to recover from last year’s disappointing season. Meanwhile, trading activity on the Turkish dried fig exchange has dropped sharply, signalling the seasonal close amid low availability and anxious market sentiment.

In Iran, another leading supplier, FOB prices have softened over the past week, influenced largely by currency shifts and competitive pressures. As the market turns its attention to new supply estimates expected by mid-July, the price structure remains firm for high-quality Turkish fruit, while Iranian grades experience mild downward corrections. Buyers and traders face a critical juncture: the balance between looming supply constraints, fluctuating demand, and unpredictable weather could steer fig prices sharply as the new marketing year approaches. This analysis delivers key market data, fundamentals, and actionable insights for both suppliers and buyers.

📈 Figs Prices at a Glance

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Turkey: Only 8 tons of dried figs were traded on the exchange last week of May, signalling a prolonged seasonal low.
• Aegean Exporters' Union: Recorded just 406 kg in the week—further confirmation that the old crop is nearly depleted.
• New Crop Outlook: Production prospects are highly dependent on sufficient water during the bud phase. Hot, dry weather and low dam heighten fears of lower yields and possible quality cuts.
• Iran: Iranian dried fig prices have dipped slightly, mainly due to local currency moves and muted demand growth in Asia.
• Demand: International buyers are cautious, awaiting clarity on Turkish production before committing to long-term contracts.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• 🌡️ Weather: Persistent, above-average heat and insufficient rainfall in Turkish growing regions.
• 💧 Irrigation Risk: Reduced dam levels threaten future water availability, crucial for fruit development now and at harvest.
• 📉 Stock Levels: End-of-season stocks are at multi-year lows, especially for higher grades.
• 📑 Speculation: Buyers are on the sidelines; forward pricing is holding firm pending the next Turkish crop forecast due mid-July.

☀️ Weather Outlook: Turkish & Iranian Fig Regions

• Malatya, Turkey: Current forecasts indicate continued hot and dry conditions, with only scattered relief expected. Water restrictions may increase.
  • Potential Impact: Stress on trees during critical bud and early fruit development. Crop quality and size are at risk if conditions persist for another 2-3 weeks.
• Tehran, Iran: Moderate heat with a slight increase in rainfall possible over the next 7 days. Minimal impact expected on established orchards for now.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Exporters:
  • Hold offers if possible for higher grades; the market may tighten further if the Turkish drought continues.
  • Monitor mid-July Turkish crop forecast for supply clarity.
• For Importers & Buyers:
  • Secure required volumes of premium Turkish dried figs, especially No.1–No.3, while prices remain stable.
  • Consider limited short-term cover for Iranian grades as price momentum is weakening.
  • Review contracts for delivery risk amid logistics and weather-related uncertainty in Turkey.
• Speculators:
  • Stay alert for potential price spikes if adverse weather persists into July, constraining Turkish supply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast