The global apricot market has entered a period of heightened volatility as extreme weather patterns—dubbed 'climate whiplash'—upend traditional production cycles in key growing regions. April frosts and severe weather in Malatya, the world's apricot powerhouse, delivered a harsh blow to local orchards, slashing yields and raising new alarm bells for both farmers and international buyers. Despite these fresh supply-side challenges, reported dried apricot prices remain steady, underpinned by resilient export demand and steady garden maintenance efforts by Turkish producers.

Export data shows that the dried apricot season closed with healthy volumes and robust unit values, providing positive momentum, yet the spectre of climate-driven instability looms large over future production. Malatya’s irrigation infrastructure offered some protection, enabling partial crop recovery, but long-term concerns over drought, frost sensitivity, and global climate unpredictability persist. As new season fresh apricots begin to reach markets, stakeholders watch weather developments closely, aware that each season's success now hinges as much on climate resilience as on agronomic skill and market savvy. Strategic sourcing, a vigilant eye on forward weather patterns, and quality differentiation—especially organic and unsulphured types—are emerging as essential playbooks for supply chain participants in today's transformed apricot landscape.

📈 Prices: Latest Apricot Market Overview

🌍 Supply & Demand: Apricot Market Drivers

• Severe Frost Impact: Late-season frosts (April 11–12) in Malatya—Turkey’s leading apricot region—caused substantial damage, echoing fears of 'climate whiplash' and reducing anticipated 2025 yields.
• Adequate Irrigation Mitigates Losses: While frost hit hard, existing irrigation systems in Malatya saved part of the crop, helping stabilize supply and preventing drastic price increases.
• Export Demand Stable: Exporters' unions report closing the dried apricot season with 396,744 kg and an average unit value of $6.79/kg, indicating solid trade flow.
• Market Sentiment: Despite climate concerns, FOB prices for Turkish dried apricots remain steady, reflecting healthy international demand and tight but manageable supplies.
• Iranian Competition: Iranian dried apricots offered at lower price points ($2.61–$3.89/kg) provide alternatives for price-sensitive buyers, though volumes and quality can vary.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Global Flows

• Fresh apricots are entering Turkish and European markets now; dried stocks are expected to tighten as demand rises into late summer.
• Organic and unsulphured types command a $0.50–$0.75/kg premium due to export and retail demand.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Focus on Malatya & Regional Crops

• Current Conditions: Recent reports underscore ongoing drought risk but confirm sufficient irrigation in Malatya. Short-term forecast points to mild weather with scattered showers, beneficial for orchard rehabilitation and new crop growth.
• Crop Recovery: Well-managed gardens with irrigation show better resilience to April’s climate shock. Ongoing weather vigilance is crucial for yield restoration and fruit quality.
• Climate Whiplash: Market participants are increasingly pricing in the risk of sudden weather swings, with insurance and forward contracts gaining traction.

🌎 Global Outlook & Trade Dynamics

• Turkey continues to anchor global dried apricot supply, particularly for premium and organic grades.
• Iran and Uzbekistan expand low-price, bulk offerings—potentially pressuring margins if Turkish exportable surpluses decline further.
• Importers in Europe, Russia, and Middle East showing strong forward interest; active spot buying is reported.

📆 Trading & Price Outlook: Strategies & Recommendations

• For Buyers:
  • Secure contracts for top grades (organic/unsulphured) early—premium gap likely to widen as stocks tighten.
  • Consider Iranian offers for cost-sensitive segments, but assess quality differentials closely.
• For Sellers/Exporters:
  • Target premium markets seeking quality/certification security.
  • Monitor weather and crop progress weekly; adjust offers swiftly on further climate disruptions.
• For Speculators/Traders:
  • Be alert for weather-related volatility spikes; upward price action possible if new crop losses are confirmed.
  • Position for potential late-summer shortfalls in Mediterranean basin.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB Turkey, Dried Apricots)

Stay alert to local weather updates, satellite imagery, and exporter communications for the latest market shifts as the fresh season progresses.