Turmoil and anticipation are at the heart of today’s global raisin market. As the season wraps up, transactional activity on key exchanges has nearly ground to a halt, with farmers showing little interest in releasing their stored grapes. This reluctance is fueled by a prevailing consensus—prices are expected to rise further in the coming weeks. Notably, number 10 grapes are virtually absent, signaling the season’s end, while limited quantities of number 8 raisins are trading at premiums above historic norms, currently reaching €3,400/ton and showing upward momentum toward €3,500/ton.

Export data underscores this trend, as only around 3 tons changed hands last week according to exporters' union records—a testament to direct farmer resistance against selling at current levels. Early new season offers are emerging, with number 9 sultanas commanding prices of €3,550/ton. Despite these high quotes, European buyers remain hesitant, signalling expectations of pricing adjustments post-holiday or by mid-July. Against this backdrop, weather outlooks and preparation for next season loom large, with all eyes on production prospects and whether the tight supply will persist or soften into the fall.

📈 Raisin Prices at a Glance

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Farmers are holding back stock, awaiting higher prices; trade volumes on exchanges are minimal.
• Number 8 sultanas are dominant in the spot market; number 10s are unavailable.
• New season price offers for number 9 at €3,550/ton, but buyers are hesitant.
• Export sales last week: only 3 tons, signaling severe farmer resistance to selling.
• Global alternatives (Iran, India, Chile) remain competitively priced but Turkish quality holds a premium.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• Stock Situation: Turkish inventories are tight, pressuring spot prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Bulls dominate as buyers anticipate further tightness.
• Global Competition:
  • Iran (FOB Tehran): €1.80–2.04/kg (dark to golden premium)
  • India (FOB New Delhi): €1.42–1.93/kg (brown/black/golden)
  • Chile (FCA NL): €2.41/kg (flame jumbo)
• Currency volatility and freight costs continue to impact CIF/FOB pricing.

☀️ Weather & New Season Outlook

• Anatolia: Weather conditions this month have seen above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall, potentially stressing grape maturation. If drought persists, yields may be negatively affected, supporting higher prices into the new season.
• Iran: Moderate spring, but some regions reported late spring frosts—prospective supply stable, but watch for localised yield impacts.
• India: Normal monsoon forecast, favourable for harvest.
• Market Impact: Any further adverse weather in Turkey before harvest can significantly accelerate price rallies.

📉 Global Production & Stock Comparison

*Estimated based on web data; US prices recently firmed on export strength.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Exporters: Hold positions for possible gains as the market remains undersupplied and weather uncertainty lingers.
• For Importers: Consider partial coverage now to hedge against escalations, especially before new crop clarity in July.
• For Processors: Monitor new season offers; avoid overcommitting before post-holiday guidance in Europe.
• For Speculators: Upside still present, but volatility is high—tight stop losses advised.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)