With the commencement of summer groundnut harvest in Deesa, Gujarat, the peanuts market finds itself at a pivotal crossroad in June 2025. Early harvest arrivals are trickling in, with market prices for the new crop quoted between USD 13.80–14.58 per 20 kg. Despite subdued overall activity, a notable upward price trend is evident—a direct result of limited initial arrivals and only partial completion of harvest in key production zones such as Banaskantha. Varietal dynamics are adding another layer of complexity: a marked shift away from the traditional TJ-quality groundnuts towards the 24-number variety (now 40% of output) is changing crop composition and price behavior. New crop volumes are not expected to significantly suppress prices, especially amid strong showings in the TJ segment. As government procurement continues with average-quality stock, quality deficits in stored inventory persist.

Looking ahead, optimism surrounds the upcoming monsoon season, with early indications pointing to an anticipated surge in groundnut sowing—assuming precipitation arrives as forecasted. Given Gujarat's substantial role, an increase in sown acreage could push total production towards a possible 4.5–5 million tonnes in 2025. With these shifting fundamentals, the peanut market’s outlook hinges on steady arrivals, ongoing procurement, and above all, weather developments in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Partial Harvest: Only about 50% of the summer groundnut crop harvested in Banaskantha; steady arrivals to peak by mid-June.
• Varietal Shift: Reduced sowing of TJ-quality, increased planting of 24-number variety—now about 40% of output.
• Procurement Quality: Ongoing government procurement, but stocks are mixed-quality with some concerns.
• Price Trends: 50–60 count groundnuts quoted at USD 1,095–1,104/100kg for June 15 delivery; older stock at USD 1,020/100kg.
• Counting Dynamics: Smaller-sized (80–90 count) trading between USD 0.98–1.09/kg, maintaining notable price stability.
• Domestic Market Activity: Subdued, but with firmer price undertones, particularly in the TJ segment.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Context

• 2024 Kharif Output: Gujarat’s 2024 Kharif production estimated at 3.5–3.6 million tonnes.
• Upside in 2025: Potential production could reach 4.5–5 million tonnes if favorable rains support enhanced planting.
• Government Stockpile: Quality concerns persist, with earlier procurement rounds accentuating the issue amid higher prices.
• Export/Import Parity: Price levels in India and Brazil remain competitive, preventing arbitrage-driven trade distortions.

🌦️ Weather & Planting Outlook

• North Gujarat monsoon sowing typically starts June 15–25; all eyes on timely and sufficient rainfall.
• Weather forecasts indicate favorable pre-monsoon setup, with farmers ready to accelerate planting if rains materialize on schedule.
• Delayed or insufficient rain could curb acreage aspirations—watch short-term updates from IMD and local sources.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

*Estimated based on international sources for 2024-25.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Source promptly, as prices are expected to hold firm with limited downside risk, especially for higher counts (TJ, Java).
• Sellers: Take advantage of current firmness in TJ and 50–60 count segments; defer sales in expectation of post-June arrivals if storage allows.
• Watch Weather: Monitor IMD and NOAA forecasts over the next 2–3 weeks; a delayed monsoon may trigger another up-leg in prices.
• Monitor Quality: Quality issues in government procurement could impact marketable supplies should demand improve later in the year.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast