Corn Finds Support After 6-Month Low – Ethanol Output Soars, Ukraine Struggles

After reaching a six-month low earlier this week, U.S. corn prices stabilised midweek. While favourable weather continues to cap gains, support came from export interest, a weaker dollar, and booming ethanol output. Meanwhile, Ukraine's exports face pricing pressure.

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📊 Price Overview

💱 CBOT price converted at 1.08 USD/EUR.

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📌 Key Market Drivers

• 🇺🇸 Market Stabilisation:CBOT corn bounced from 6-month lows, fueled by technical buying and a weaker dollar. Gains were limited by excellent U.S. crop conditions.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine Struggles with Low U.S. Prices:Ukrainian exports are expected to fall to 1 Mt in June (from 2 Mt in May), per UAC. The season total is estimated at 22 Mt, with 20.6 Mt already shipped. Ukraine cannot compete with U.S. prices in the EU market, said UAC.
• 🇺🇸 USDA Ethanol Report (May 30):
  • 📈 Production rose to 1.105 Mio bpd, an 11-week high
  • 🛢️ Stocks: +159,000 bbl to 24.44 Mio bbl
  • 🚛 Exports: +84,000 bpd to 150,000 bpd, an 8-week high
  • 🏭 Refinery input: ▼ -37,000 bpd to 902,000 bpd
• 🇺🇸 Crop Progress Update (June 3):
  • 🌱 87% planted, just 2 pp above 5-year avg
  • 🌿 67% emergence, vs. 60% avg
  • ✅ 68% good/excellent, below the 73% trade estimate
• 🇧🇷 Brazil Outlook:
  • 📈 Datagro raised total 2024/25 corn production to 132.7 Mt (USDA: 130 Mt)
  • +0.7% from previous forecast

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📦 USDA Export Inspections (May 22)

• 📦 1.396 Mt, ▼ -21% WoW, but ▲ +24% YoY
  • 🇯🇵 Japan: 374,460 t
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico: 297,363 t
  • 🇨🇴 Colombia: 199,544 t
• 📊 Season Total: 46.98 Mt exported since Sept. 1, ▲ +29% YoY

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🔍 Commentary

The corn market remains rangebound, between strong U.S. supply prospects and steady export support. Ukraine’s export slump underscores the impact of competitive U.S. pricing, particularly in Europe. The strong ethanol output is a bullish signal, but excellent weather continues to limit rallies.

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📈 Outlook

• Watch for: Today’s USDA export sales report (expecting 775,000–1.4 Mt for old crop)
• Near-term trend: Stabilisation, but upside capped unless weather risks re-emerge