The global walnut market is entering a pivotal phase as 2025 progresses, marked by a notable uptick in in-shell walnut demand and distinct regional price trends. While Iranian and Chinese origins lead volumes, the past weeks have witnessed active inquiries from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, especially for fresh-crop contracts. This surge in activity is set against a backdrop of moderated overall trade volume, stable inventory carry-ins, and tightening supplies in some key origins.

Iranian walnut kernel prices remain resilient, buoyed by stable export interest, while Chinese walnut processors are observing steady sales toward Southeast Asian and European buyers. In-shell walnut pricing has firmed on the back of strong demand, while some kernel categories have softened as inventories move through the pipeline. Weather across growing regions, particularly in California and Xinjiang, is mostly favourable but bears watching as the Northern Hemisphere growing season intensifies. Market participants remain focused on fresh-crop outlooks, quality expectations, and logistics dynamics in the months ahead.

📈 Price Trends

Market Sentiment: Moderate bullishness for in-shell walnuts; stable-to-weak tone for kernels as old-crop sells out, with steady demand for premium and quality lots.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Demand: Notable pickup for in-shell contracts, especially from European and Asian buyers planning for autumn/winter needs. Kernel demand stabilizing at slightly lower levels after early-year fluctuations.
• Supply: Sufficient old-crop stocks in Iran and China, but inventories are thinning. US and Chilean new-crop outlooks good, but quality concerns linger due to variable spring weather.
• Speculative Activity: Limited; trade dominated by traditional buyers securing forward positions ahead of new crop.
• Inventories: Average across major origins; logistics remain manageable but delays possible during harvest transitions.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Key Origins: China, USA (California), Iran, Chile, India
• Global Production, 2024/25e (USDA/industry estimates):
  • China: ~1.2 million MT (steady)
  • US: ~730,000 MT (mild growth)
  • Iran: ~300,000 MT (stable)
  • Chile: ~170,000 MT (flat)
  • EU, India: ~150,000 MT (combined)
• Major Consumers: EU, Turkey, India, Middle East, North Africa
• Stocks: Average-to-tight in Asia and the Middle East; balanced in Europe, US stocks winding down pre-new harvest.
• Trade Flows: Chinese and Iranian exports are active to the EU and South Asia; US exports are rebounding after a softer 2024 start.

🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook

• California, US: Mild weather with occasional showers—generally supportive for nut fill, but local flooding near Sacramento is not expected to reduce overall yield significantly.
• Xinjiang, China: Warm, dry weather continuing—possibly leading to smaller nuts, though disease pressure is low so far.
• Iran: Favourable spring conditions; localised drought worries subsiding, crop development on track.
• Chile: Harvest complete, good quality reported. No major weather threats.

🗺 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Secure in-shell contracts now if autumn/winter supply is needed, as fresh-crop contracts attract strong demand.
• Kernel buyers may find brief price-softening opportunities, especially for Grade B lots, but premium lots are quickly sold out.
• Monitor weather risks in the US and China as the critical nut-filling period begins; market could react sharply to adverse news.
• Importers should seek diversified origins to hedge against possible late-summer supply disruptions.
• Quality premiums persist for large, bright kernels and well-filled inshells—focus procurement on these grades.

⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB Major Origins)