As the summer season unfolds, the sunflower market finds itself in a nuanced position: trading activity has softened, with both raw seed and processed kernel buyers opting for replenishment on an as-needed basis. Chinese demand—a key force in global kernels trade—remains notably subdued, echoing historical patterns of off-peak summer months. However, the sector is flexing its adaptability, with high-quality products retaining a steady premium and Southeast Asian demand emerging as a bright spot, offsetting some losses from Europe, where import volumes continue their annual decline.

Price trends at major ports reflect both the competitive pressure among origins and shifting trade flows: Tianjin and Dalian are quoting confectionery-grade kernels at USD 1030–1060/mt, while bakery-grade is offered at USD 1020–1080/mt. In Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Moldova, price corrections near the end of the marketing year signal ample inventories and an easing freight situation from the Black Sea. This report tracks these interwoven factors—ranging from weather in the northern hemisphere’s core growing belts to speculation about new market entrants—offering a comprehensive data-driven guide for market professionals assessing their Q3 and Q4 strategies.

📈 Prices

China ports (Tianjin/Dalian): Confectionery grade USD 1030–1060/mt, Bakery grade USD 1020–1080/mt (week range, reference)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chinese market in seasonal lull; factories and roasters are replenishing based on immediate needs, mostly favouring premium quality.
• Exports of kernels from China are happening only as buyers' orders emerge—demand overall is still tepid.
• European consumption continues a long-term decline; however, Southeast Asia is taking a growing share of Chinese output.
• Ukraine, as the world's leading exporter, is seeing gradual liquidation of inventories at minor discounts as the new crop approaches and logistics out of the Black Sea normalise slightly.
• Bulgaria and Moldova markets are stable but cautious, with some minor declines in both seed and kernel prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• The latest USDA Oilseeds report points to ample global stocks for 2025, though weather in critical growing zones remains a risk factor.
• Kernels from China maintain a premium due to high processing standards and cleanliness. Organic kernels fetch up to 13% more in Beijing.
• Speculative interest is low, as price direction is led more by physical market activity than funds-driven volatility.
• FOB spreads between origins (UA, CN, BG) reflect logistical cost and evolving quality premiums.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Southern Russia: Current satellite and forecast models suggest average-to-above average rainfall for the next 14 days, boding well for yield prospects if realised.
• China (Interior/North): Mostly dry but moderate; temperature swings are not extreme, generally supportive for ongoing crop development in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang regions.
• Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova: Early heat wave gave way to normal temperatures with spotty rainfall—no major stress detected yet, but the region remains sensitive as key pod-filling weeks approach.
• Near-term risk: probability of thunderstorms and localised flooding in select Black Sea zones, which could briefly disrupt logistics and harvest quality for early maturing fields.

🏭 Global Production & Stocks

Source: USDA Oilseeds Report, June 2025

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Seasonal pressure may offer additional minor downside in the next few weeks, but high-quality lots are likely to retain relative firmness.
• Sellers: Consider incremental sales before the main harvest in Ukraine and southern Russia to avoid further price drift and inventory buildup.
• Watch for sudden logistics disruptions in the Black Sea, as summer storms can impair port loading and transport.
• Monitor Southeast Asian demand trends—further growth here could underpin Chinese and Ukrainian export prices.
• Organic and speciality kernel demand remains robust; consider the premium segment for margin stability.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Fundamentals suggest a slight further easing in seeds; kernels remain steadier, especially for premium grades.