China's bean market is currently seeing a tug-of-war between tightening supplies and lukewarm demand. Feedback from market participants highlights a noticeable scarcity of premium black beans, prompting prices to edge upward. However, most buyers remain cautious, limiting overall market volume. Expectations are for prices to remain broadly stable in the coming period, with some localised price concessions likely as sellers look to stimulate purchases.

The supply of Qingren Wuheihu and Hei Dadao beans remains balanced by steady domestic demand, while small black kidney beans find their principal outlet in export markets. With traders holding minimal inventory and primarily focused on stock liquidation, volatility is muted but could change rapidly with market sentiment or export shifts. This context offers both risks and opportunities for participants along the chain, from bulk buyers to exporters.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Black beans: Premium supply remains tight, driven by limited harvest and depleted stocks; minor volume is moving through the market as buyers are hesitant on high prices.
• Demand: Domestic demand for Qingren Wuheihu and Hei Dadao beans remains stable; small black kidney beans are largely export-focused.
• Trade dynamics: Low trader inventories signal limited supply stress, but also mean any export demand shock could quickly move prices higher or cause illiquidity.
• Stock drawdown: Traders are currently digesting inventory rather than building new stock, keeping overall supply lower than usual.

📊 Fundamentals

• Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative activity given tight physical stocks and limited domestic demand growth.
• Inventory Trends: Low inventories with slow replenishment point to continued price resilience in black bean categories.
• Import/Export Outlook: Export of small black beans offers rising price potential should global buyers re-enter the market strongly.
• Price Disparity: Small price differences among suppliers, reflecting varied willingness to sell and differing quality.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• North China: Recent months saw patchy rainfall but generally mild temperatures. The current short-term forecast (next 7 days) shows scattered showers over major bean-producing provinces such as Heilongjiang and Jilin, expected to favour healthy crop development and limit major supply stresses.
• Potential impact: Barring unforeseen weather disruption, no significant yield risk is anticipated for current crops; localised excess rain could affect harvest quality, so close monitoring is advised.

📉 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🐂 Bullish Bias: Black bean prices are likely to remain supported as long as premium supply scarcity persists and inventories stay low.
• 🎯 Buyers: Consider forward contracts if quality supply is critical; the spot market may offer only limited lots at premium rates.
• ⬅️ Sellers: Hold positions if possible to capture any late-season price spikes; localised discounts may be needed to stimulate slow demand.
• 🚢 Exporters: Watch for renewed import demand from Asian and Middle Eastern markets – any lift could rapidly tighten the market.
• 🔄 Risk: An unexpectedly good harvest in the coming weeks or a sudden demand drop from main export destinations could see spot prices correct lower.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, selected cities)