The global corn market has begun to recover from recent multi-year lows, the US month July contract at the CBOT up for a third consecutive session. While the gains remain modest—just 0.75 cents to 439.5 US-cent/bu—fundamental factors and external dynamics are adding new energy to the market. The bullish turnaround is supported by firmer wheat and soybean prices, alongside mounting weather concerns: US Midwest forecasts call for a warmer, drier June, exposing the crop to critical development risks at a time of generally ample stocks and lacklustre demand growth.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s harvest is ahead of last year’s pace, but pockets of excessive moisture in Buenos Aires province may limit the upside, despite unchanged national output projections at 49 million tons. Weekly US export sales signal ongoing challenges: although sales rose from the previous week, they lag 20% behind last year’s pace, and ethanol shipments fell sharply. Competing origins are shifting, with Brazil’s May exports hitting exceptional lows. In short, the stage is set for increased volatility as the market eyes weather and global trade flows. Recent price firmness, improved but not stellar exports, and shifting fundamentals all make the coming weeks pivotal for both producers and buyers.

📈 Prices: Corn Benchmarks at a Glance

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Export Sales: Old crop sales of 942,276 t (week ending 29 May), within trade expectations but 20% below last year. New crop sales at 160,116 t, mid-range.
• Argentina: Harvest 44% complete (vs 35.2% last year). Good average yields (80.2 dt/ha early, 75.2 dt/ha late). Persistent field wetness in Buenos Aires poses local risks.
• Brazil: Exports in May were sharply down at 38,928 t (vs 413,374 t May 2024), signalling restricted exportable supply in the short term.
• US Ethanol: Deliveries down 20% YoY. DGGS exports down 8% YoY, underlining weak industrial demand.

📊 Fundamental Analysis

• US Stocks: Remain ample but could tighten if US weather disrupts yield development in June-July.
• Argentina: Production holding at 49 Mt despite some local risks. The weather in June will be critical as wet fields could translate into quality and quantity losses if rain persists.
• Brazil: Export drop signals domestic supply concerns and supports global price floors—watch Safrinha crop progress.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US Midwest: Forecasts are trending warmer and drier for June, precisely as the crop approaches its most vulnerable pollination stage. Heightened risk for stress if dryness intensifies.
• Argentina: Excessive soil moisture in some southern provinces may hinder progress. No wide-scale losses yet, but ongoing rainfall would pose a growing threat to the late crop.
• Brazil: Generally favourable; main harvest wrapped up, sporadic dryness in interior not seen as a major issue for current supply.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshop

(*) = USDA May 2025 projection

📌 Key Market Drivers

• US Midwest weather is likely decisive for pricing in coming weeks. Pollination stress will quickly be price-positive for bulls.
• Slow Brazilian exports and wet Argentine fields are providing some short-term support.
• Physical market: stable FOB bids for France (0.27 USD/kg) and Ukraine (0.21 USD/kg).
• US demand remains muted; the ethanol market is not supporting the complex.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider covering prompt and early new-crop needs; price floor risk is rising as weather premium is rebuilt.
• Producers: Sell small increments of price strength but maintain risk on weather volatility.
• Traders: Monitor fund positioning—short squeeze risk if weather concern escalates.
• Speculators: Upside potential ticks higher if US forecast heat/dryness persists into late June.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast