The global turmeric market is currently at a crossroads, shaped by a complex interplay of shrinking inventories, lower-than-expected harvests, and resilient international demand. Over the past month, turmeric prices saw a brief decline—dropping by about USD 0.12 per kg—a dip primarily fueled by soft liquidity and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Yet, these bearish forces now appear exhausted. With the majority of old stocks depleted and fresh arrivals struggling to meet consumption needs, supply has turned strikingly tight. Key Indian growing regions such as Erode, Warangal, Nizamabad, Sangli, and Duggirala report lower yields per hectare, combined with quality issues that further restrict usable supply. Spot prices already trade USD 0.05–0.06 above mandi rates as availability plummets and traders hold back fresh sales. The current 2024 and 2025 harvest cycles—estimated at just 6.2 million bags for 2025 versus 8.4–8.5 million bags last year—are insufficient to cover domestic and export demand, roughly 13 million bags. As a result, a major price surge looks imminent, with quotes expected to reach USD 2.16/kg or higher before the next harvest. Even the cautious trader finds little comfort in such a supply-and-demand landscape. The consensus: long-term holders are rewarded as fundamentals remain bullish, and further downside risk is limited.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production crunch: Total supply (6.7 million bags, including just 0.5m bags carryover) is sharply down from last year (8.4–8.5 million bags).
• Harvest disruption: Yields have fallen in major producing regions due to adverse weather and shifting acreage.
• Stalled farmer sales: Deliberate holding by traders and farmers intensifies spot price premiums.
• Rising consumption: Combined domestic and export demand (approx. 13 million bags/year) continues to outpace supply.
• Changing crop mix: Ongoing shift to more profitable crops (corn, banana) further shrinks turmeric planting area.

📊 Fundamentals

• Old inventory almost entirely cleared; only 2024/2025 turmeric circulates in the market.
• Daily arrivals in Nizamabad drop to 7,500–7,600 bags (from 10,000–11,000 bags).
• Quality issues (e.g., stung turmeric) limit the supply of usable roots in key regions.
• Pod formation below average in both Nizamabad and Sangli.
• Only select traders currently hold meaningful inventory.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Recent dry spells and unpredictable rainfall in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu have hampered crop development, with little relief expected in the next 7 days according to IMD and regional forecasts.
• The monsoon is projected to be patchy and delayed for much of central and southern India, aggravating moisture stress and rendering further downward pressure on yields.
• Above-average temperatures in major turmeric belts raise the risk of further pod and root formation losses.

🌏 Global Production & Inventory

🔎 Market Drivers

• Firm international prices and low global stock-to-use ratios support continued price escalation.
• Speculative positioning limited by tight spot market and lack of readily available inventory.
• Further delays in farmer sales and limited mandi arrivals maintain a bullish undertone.
• Geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations could introduce short-term volatility but are unlikely to reverse overall bullishness.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For long-term traders: Maintain current positions. Fundamentals are robust; upside potential outweighs downside risk.
• For short-term traders: Consider gradual accumulation near support levels; avoid panic selling amid corrections as further downside is limited.
• For processors/exporters: Secure coverage for the next 2–3 months before the next harvest as further spot price appreciation is anticipated.
• For buyers/end users: Lock in contracts for essential quantities as the market is likely to tighten further.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast