The lentils market is currently at a crossroads, navigating a transition from last season’s dramatic rally to a pronounced bearish phase. Spurred by the record prices seen throughout 2023-24, farmers in India and other significant producing countries—especially Myanmar and Brazil—dramatically boosted acreage. As the new harvest pours into global markets, a surge in supply is weighing heavily on prices, with black gram, a key segment of the pulses family, showing notable declines across major Indian trading centers such as Delhi and Chennai. While last season’s price surge owed much to depleted inventories, these reserves have since been replenished, and sentiment has shifted; speculative trading is on the retreat and buyers, including dal millers, are hesitant in the face of weak processed lentil demand. Layer in a timely and favorable monsoon forecast for India—the most promising since 2009—and the prospect of additional crop boosts seems likely. The combination of robust global production, especially in Myanmar (up 37–38%) and vast planting increases in India (up 50-55% in key regions), has set the stage for a buyers' market where upward price movement is expected to remain capped. Until new kharif crops arrive in three months, the overwhelming advice from market experts is caution: limit purchases strictly to meet actual demand, as further downside remains possible.

📈 Prices and Sentiment Overview

🌍 Supply & Demand Highlights

• India: Massive acreage increase (up 50–55% in Madhya Pradesh’s Jabalpur belt), with new arrivals lowering internal market prices sharply.
• Myanmar: Production up 37–38% year-on-year, resulting in steady export flows and downward price pressure in key import markets.
• Brazil: Expanded planting area and favorable weather contributing to healthy output.
• Sudden supply influx is met with weak buying—millers are reducing procurement as finished product demand remains tepid.
• Operation Sindoor and high stocks at traders/millers have further dampened buying and forward deals.
• Global inventories are up, and with more crop coming (esp. new black gram in ~3 months), oversupply will linger.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Crop acreage is at multi-year highs across main producers due to last season's price boom.
• Old stock depletion kept prices temporarily elevated, but new supply is now driving a correction.
• Export offers remain aggressive from Myanmar and Canada.
• India's domestic prices: Black gram in Delhi has dropped to USD 82.80–84.60/quintal (from peaks of 90–91.2); Chennais's SQ quality down ~USD 34/quintal YoY.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• The Indian Meteorological Department projects a timely and normal monsoon—the first such positive development since 2009—across main pulse-growing regions.
• This increases the potential for a strong kharif sowing season and further production expansion later this year.
• No significant adverse weather disruptions reported for Brazilian, African, or Canadian lentil areas as of early June 2025.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Hold off on speculative long positions; bearish momentum is strong amid oversupply and weak demand.
• Tighten purchases to cover only immediate/actual demand, especially before new kharif arrivals increase supply further.
• Monitor monsoon developments in India closely for any risk of weather disruption, but current outlook is highly favorable.
• Importers: Wait for market stabilization; additional downside in local and global prices remains possible near-term.
• Exporters: Position competitively; Myanmar and Brazil likely to be aggressive on offers into Q3 2025.

📆 Regional 3-Day Price Forecast