The coconut market is currently grappling with deep-rooted supply woes, as the world’s top suppliers—Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka—find themselves beset by depleted inventories, weather-driven yield contractions, and intense demand from both traditional and emerging buyers. The Philippines, historically the bellwether of coconut supply, faces a near standstill until at least November 2025 following a projected 20% production cut. Early shipment availability is limited and priced at a premium, with most buyers resigned to long delays or elevated costs. Indonesian coconut output is also under stress due to poor crop yields and heavy pressure from robust Chinese demand, particularly for coconut milk, coupled with ongoing export commitments to both China and Thailand. Sri Lanka’s domestic shortage is so pronounced that even households struggle to access coconuts, resulting in the highest prices globally for both whole coconuts and processed forms. With desiccated coconut inventories at destination markets running thin and spot prices firming up, the persistent shortfall is shaping both near-term and outlook market sentiment. On the horizon, the absence of substantial supply relief, unresolved weather risks, and firm underlying demand signal continued strength in coconut product prices—an outlook confirmed in our most recent market data and supported by both regional supply trends and external trade dynamics.

📈 Prices: Market Snapshot & Exchange Summary

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Philippines: Near-empty inventories; no material new shipments until November; projected 20% yoy production drop for 2025; limited early positions at high premiums.
• Indonesia: Weak harvests, high export flows to China (fresh coconut and coconut milk), additional demand from Thailand. No export ban but government urges stronger domestic planting initiatives.
• Sri Lanka: Extreme domestic shortages with households struggling to secure supply; highest global prices for both domestic and export markets.
• Destination Markets: Physical inventories of desiccated coconut are very low; rising spot prices observed; robust global demand, especially from Asia and the EU.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Commentary

• Inventories remain critically low in key terminals.
• Despite marginal weekly price declines in some segments, the overall market is structurally bullish due to chronic supply tightness and sustained demand.
• Little relief expected before Q4 2025 as major producing regions forecast lower yields.
• Rumors of Indonesian export restrictions have been firmly denied, but further government intervention to increase planting is expected.

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Philippines: Recent strong El Niño and sporadic dry spells have adversely impacted flowering and nut set rates, reducing harvests through late 2025.
• Indonesia: Reports from the field confirm ongoing dryness; some improvement possible with seasonal rains, but the crop will remain well below average.
• Sri Lanka: Severe drought and temperature extremes have sent yields tumbling and exacerbated household supply shortages.

Potential Effects: With little weather relief in key Southeast Asian regions, expect output to trail demand and maintain upward pressure on prices for the rest of 2025.

🌏 Production, Stocks, and Top Importers

📅 Trading Outlook & Actionable Insights

• Buyers: Secure positions early, especially for Q3/Q4 2025 and into 2026; spot supply is limited and long lead times are likely.
• Sellers/Exporters: Withhold forward contracts to capture further upside or sell small parcels at firm prices to manage relationships.
• End-users: Assess product reformulation and alternative sourcing to mitigate the risk of input shortages.
• Speculators: Upward price risk dominates for the next several months; aggressive buying on dips remains favored.

🔮 Regional 3-day Price Forecast